Timmer Report: Are the markets declaring victory too soon?

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Timmer Report: Are the markets declaring victory too soon?

September 2022

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, examines market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes and how these expectations may have big implications for the markets’ future direction.

Highlights

Economic growth has weakened, and inflation shows signs of peaking.
The markets have priced in “Peak Fed,” which have caused financial conditions to ease.
The Fed may start to push back on this as declaring victory too soon. The Fed still has more than a percent of rate hikes to go, according to the forward curve.
An open question is whether the Fed will revert policy back to neutral (2.5%) after this rate cycle.

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Authors

Jurrien Timmer

Director of Global Macro

Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. In this role, he is part of Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation group, where he specializes in asset allocation and global macro strategy.

Before assuming his current position, Mr. Timmer held various senior roles within Fidelity, including portfolio manager, director of market research and technical research analyst. Before joining Fidelity in 1995, Mr. Timmer was a vice-president in the fixed-income group at ABN AMRO. He has been in the investments industry since 1985.

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Insights

Timmer Report: Are the markets declaring victory too soon?

Highlights

Authors

David Wolf, David Tulk and Ilan Kolet: Rate hikes and their consequences

David Wolf, David Tulk and Ilan Kolet: Further along

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