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Second Quarter 2019 Quarterly Market Update (Executive Summary)

April 2019

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) examines major themes in global financial markets and presents its investment outlook in this quarterly market update.


  • During Q1, global growth remained positive but increasingly uneven, and many major economies have progressed toward more advanced stages of the business cycle; the U.S. is firmly in late cycle but with low near-term risk of recession.

  • Despite the heightened uncertainty, global assets responded favorably to the U.S. Federal Reserve's shift away from its monetary tightening bias; U.S. equity markets led the way.

  • Globally, government bond yields continued to decline; 10-year Treasury yields fell below 3-month Treasury yields, inverting the U.S. yield curve.

  • Although we think global economic momentum has peaked, recent changes in policy stances in the U.S. and China are supportive of asset markets and of the business cycle overall.

  • The mature global business cycle continues to warrant smaller cyclical allocation tilts and the prioritization of portfolio diversification; risks include monetary and trade policy uncertainty, as well as China's uncertain outlook and policy response.


Dirk Hofschire
Dirk Hofschire Senior Vice-President, Asset Allocation Research
Dirk Hofschire is Senior Vice-President, Asset Allocation Research, in the Global Asset Allocation group at Fidelity Investments. In this role, he is a member of the Asset Allocation Research team, which conducts economic, fundamental and quantitative research to develop asset allocation recommendations for Fidelity’s portfolio managers and investment teams.

Mr. Hofschire joined Fidelity in 2000 as a senior portfolio analyst. Most recently he led the Market Analysis, Research and Education group within Fidelity Management & Research Company, which he created in 2005 to provide timely updates on trends in the economy and financial markets. Before joining Fidelity, Mr. Hofschire was a foreign service officer with the U.S. Department of State.
Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly
Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly Director of Research
Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly is a director of research in the Global Asset Allocation group at Fidelity Investments. In this role, she is responsible for leading the Asset Allocation Research team in conducting economic, fundamental and quantitative research to develop asset allocation and macro investment recommendations.

Before joining Fidelity in 1996, Ms. Emsbo-Mattingly was an economic analyst at Eastern Research Group and an economic analyst in the international forecasting division at DRI/McGraw-Hill (now IHS Global Insight). She has been in the investments industry since 1990.
Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)
Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)
The AART is responsible for analyzing and synthesizing investment perspectives across Fidelity’s asset management unit to generate insights on macroeconomic and financial market trends and their implications for asset allocation.